The Haphazard Blog

That was a great come back. It reminded me of the Super Bowl winning Patriots — making the plays they needed to win. They were lucky to win that game.

Tom Brady didn’t look comfortable until he was in the hurry-up offense. Was it his knee? Was the hurry up going so fast that he didn’t have time to think about his knee? He was uncharacteristically inaccurate. Some passes high, some passes low. There were also some drops in there. I think back to last year. Before Brady went down, both Randy Moss and Wes Welker fumbled the ball. But, Brady was accurate. I joked to my brother who was 84? Ben Watson came up big. He has been known more for dropping passes and not living up to the hype. Is this the (contract) year?

The defense was getting destroyed on screen passes and short passes. They did a good job against the run. The red zone defense was not good. I assumed this would be an area they’d really improve in this season. They were really bad at it last year and Bill Belichick usually fixes major deficiencies year-to-year. Jerod Mayo went down and I’m not sure how bad it is. He did run a bit after getting hurt. I’d think that means it isn’t season ending. My feeling going into the season was he was going to be our Ray Lewis — a real play maker. Didn’t have much of those. I can only think of the pair of sacks at the end of the game. Looks like they’ll be able to get to the passer on obvious passing situations. They really need some play makers on defense.

The big play was obviously the forced fumble on the kick off. I don’t think the defense forces a 3 and out if Buffalo doesn’t fumble.Heads up play by Brandon Meriweather to make the hit and hold Leodis McKelvin up for Pierre Woods to knock the ball lose. Stephen Gostkowski was also Johnny on the spot to get the ball.

Next week it’s the Jets. They’ve been doing a lot of talking (and I’m sure there will be more). I’d say no one does that and gets away with it, but Joey Porter was able to do it last year. I think if Brady has better accuracy the Pats will be fine.

Pittsburgh won last night in overtime. My feelings towards the Steelers (I hate them) not withstanding, the NFL seriously needs to fix OT. Below is my plan and some stats to support my thinking.

My primary issue with the NFL’s overtime rules is that it fundamentally changes the way a game is played. The teams use one strategy for 60 minutes and use another in OT. In OT, when a team approaches FG range, each play turns into the last play of the game (as if there isn’t time for another play.) So you have actions like:

• Kicking a FG on 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd down.
• Kicking a FG following a turnover.
• Running and kneeling to place the ball for a FG.

Everything they do is just to get the FG as the last play of the game.  A lot of normal game strategies are thrown out the window. If the goal of the NFL OT isn’t to simply prevent ties (if it is, then this system is perfect except they would need to have an unlimited amount of time to prevent all ties) I propose an alternative system that addresses the lop-sided coin flip and player’s concern over extra playing time.

First, some statistics I compiled.

Over the last 5 seasons, the percentage of teams winning the coin flip, taking the ball and winning was 31%, 33%, 42%, 38% and 53%. That averages out to 39% over 5 years. Over the last 5 seasons, the percentage of teams winning the coin flip and eventually winning the game (the team winning the coin flip is generally favored to have more possessions since OT is sudden death and the team losing the coin flip can only have as many possessions as their opponent unless they successfully attempt an onsides kick) was 69%, 53%, 58%, 56% and 73%. That averages out to 62% over 5 years and never below 50%. I think the fact that the winner of the coin flip always chose to receive speaks for itself. Everyone believes winning the coin flip is an advantage. Also, when has anyone wondered what would’ve happened if the other team won the coin toss at the beginning of the game? No one really sees the coin flip at the beginning of the game as being all that important (even TV coverage agrees since they often don’t show it, but you never miss the OT coin toss).

Over the last 5 years, OT games have averaged 2.35 possessions, had a length of 6 minutes and 33 seconds and 14.4 OT games per season. Going to a full 15 minute period would add on average, 7 minutes and 33 seconds to each team’s total game time.  However, I don’t like a plan to just play for 15 minutes. As I said, I don’t like that the game strategy changes. My suggestion instead is (I’m not the first person to suggest this):

• Two-3 minute and 15 second halves
• Use the same timing rules used in the last 5 minutes of a half during the game, no 2-minute warning
• 3 timeouts for each team
• Booth review for all replays
• In the regular season the game can end in a tie at the end of the 2 halves.
• In the postseason, halves are repeated until there is a winner at the end of both halves.

This eliminates the question of what would’ve happened if the other team won the coin flip. It adds back most football strategy like clock management and reduces playing for the FG. It doesn’t increase the average playing time and it keeps the OT sufficiently short enough for TV considerations. The rules are similar to the rest of the game except the time on the game clock is significantly less to start each half.

As many people say, it will probably take a Super Bowl to end in a tie at regulation and have the winner of the coin flip take the ball down the field and kick a FG on 1^stdown after a great offensive battle before they change these rules. Either way, I’ve posted this and now I can refer to it instead of repeating it. :)

My brother told me the Patriots traded Richard Seymour this morning. I was definitely shocked. Once I found out the compensation from the Raiders (2011 #1), I started to really think about it. My feeling was that’s it? Using the system from past drafts, that’s either a low 2010 #1 or 2010 #2.

I thought of other Patriots trades. They traded Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel for a #2. Cassel signed a new contract worth Tony Romo money. Matt Schaub netted two #2s for Atlanta and he signed a smaller deal. Richard Seymour is an All-Pro and constantly mentioned as a top 5 lineman. They traded Deion Branch for a #1 before the 2006 season and he isn’t a #1 WR. Dallas traded a #1, #3 and #6 AND paid Roy Williams the same as Randy Moss ($9M/yr). Why did they trade him for so little?

I can see why they traded him in general. They can’t franchise him and Vince Wilfork at the end of the season. One of them would be able to walk. If either walked, the most they could get is a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2011 draft. Seymour is older. The defensive line was shutting down the run well all preseason using a lot of groupings including rookies like Ron Brace and Myron Pryor. Not sure how this affects the pass rush. There’s also potential to have a very high pick in a draft that may have a rookie wage scale. The team isn’t better, but hopefully they aren’t noticeably worse. I guess we’ll see as the season goes on. The defense is supposed to be the weak link with a returning Tom Brady.