The Haphazard Blog

The Patriots headed into the draft with 4 picks on the first 2 days (one in the 1st Rd (22nd) and three in the 2nd Rd (44, 47 and 53)) and finished the first 2 days with five selections (one in the 1st Rd (27), three in the 2nd Rd (42, 53, 62) and one in the 3rd Rd (90)) and Carolina’s 2011 2nd Rd pick.

As usual they moved around and were able to get something for 2011. They now have 2 picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds in 2011. It was nice to see them trade up to go after Rob Gronkowski. Sounds like he is expected to be a player like Daniel Graham: great blocker, good hands. I think it’s hard to really figure out how a TE will fit into the passing game in New England because it has been so long since they had a tight end with big receiving numbers. Since no one has really left New England and turned into a star pass catching tight end, I don’t know if it’s the system or all the picks weren’t all that good.

They were able to pick up two more linebackers. The first was Jermaine Cunningham who should be an OLB and the second was Brandon Spikes who should be an ILB, both from Florida. OLB is a position that badly needs a 3 down player who can set the edge on the run and rush the passer. It seemed the analysts all had similar opinions on Brandon Spikes. Slow 40-yd dash time but good instincts. Belichick says he plays faster than the times say. It’s a tall order for a second rounder to become a starter, but the Patriots linebackers were at their best when they had a rotation of 3 OLBs and 3 ILBs. If these guys can become part of the rotation at some point, New England will have gone a long way toward rebuilding their LB corps.

The last player they selected was Taylor Price. Seems like a guy who was taken more for his potential than production. The Patriots have a murky situation at WR this year and long term. Wes Welker is rehabbing a knee injury that many expect to keep him out of the beginning of the season. Julian Edelman is most likely to take his place. Randy Moss returns for what he believes is his last season. The #3 WR is just as big a question mark as it was when the season ended last year. They will have David Patten, Torry Holt, Brandon Tate and now Taylor Price all competing for the job. They should be able to find a #3 WR for this year from the group, but I wonder what happens if Moss is gone in 2011? Can Tate or Price develop into a #1 WR?

The Patriots head into today with 8 more picks to make today. They have to use their 4 compensatory selections. I came into this draft expecting them not to use all of the 12 picks and now they could use 13. We’ll see how this pans out.

A lot of Patriots aren’t too happy this morning. Likely talking themselves into this being a good pick. I gave up a long time ago trying to determine if the pick is good or not. They have more information and insight than the rest of us, but I still feel like I wasted the whole night. Might as well read a recap of what happens because I’m never excited after they finally pick.

With that said, I had dreams of having Dez Bryant playing WR. To keep it in perspective, the Patriots have drafted Deion Branch and Chad Jackson, so even if they took him, they have made mistakes in the past. They had two chances to get him and passed. Denver did as well. I’d say he wasn’t seriously considered as a good fit.

Sergio Kindle was another guy that many expected New England to take and they had three chances to get him and he’s still available to start the second round. Today some people are now saying he has knee concerns.

So the Patriots took Devin McCourty, a defensive back with their pick. This is a position that was listed as an area with little need. They have been drafting young corners the last three years (Terrence Wheatley, 2nd Rd 2008; Jonathan Wilhite, 4th Rd 2008; Darius Butler, 2nd Rd 2009) and signed Leigh Bodden to a long term contract this offseason.

My thoughts are that last season, we saw game after game lost because of the defense when the Patriots had the lead. Any pick on defense for a better player than they had last year helps. Bill Belichick constantly emphasized that pass rush is two-fold: coverage and pressure. Hopefully he addressed the coverage aspect here with this guy. They are in search of a shut down corner. No one is saying McCourty is one, but the Patriots developed Asante Samuel into one. If they can do this with McCourty (it won’t be immediate) and take away the other team’s best WR, it helps the entire defense.

They have 12 more picks and I don’t see them using them all. I expect a lot of movement tomorrow, but not sure which way. I like to see them move up because it seems to indicate there is a specific player they really want. I don’t like to hear them move back to later say there were a few players they liked, simply wanted better value and were willing to take whoever was left. Real enthusiasm and desire there! They have 4 picks tonight. We’ll see if they get an OLB and RDE.

With the NFL draft coming up later this week I thought now would be a good time to share my thoughts on where they are at this point and throw out some wild guesses on what happens during the draft.

The Patriots made some small signings since the second day of free agency. They brought back old friend David Patten. He is certainly a guy Tom Brady can work with, but given his age (and he was out of the NFL last year) I don’t know how much production you can expect from him. I would be surprised if he made the roster. The Patriots could’ve picked him up last year when they badly needed a receiver but didn’t. I believe he was brought in to help teach the younger players good habits. Troy Brown is long gone, Wes Welker is rehabbing his knee and I don’t see Randy Moss as a workout warrior.

The Patriots worked out a deal for Kevin Faulk. Looks like he is now going to finish up his career similarly to Troy Brown, one year at a time until he retires as a Patriot. I’m hoping Faulk can teach Laurence Maroney how to better protect the ball. Long time Patriots fans will remember that Faulk had a fumbling problem earlier in his career and now he is counted on for his sure hands.

They also signed Alge Crumpler who was not nearly as good in Tennessee as he was in Atlanta. He reminds me of Kyle Brady now. Just a big guy who would likely be best suited (and used) as a blocking tight end. Seems fine to me though. The Patriots just don’t seem to use a tight end to catch passes. It’s like their last responsibility. The best group of tight ends that Bill Belichick has had in training camp are all gone. They cut Alex Smith, traded David Thomas, let Ben Watson walk and cut Chris Baker. Doesn’t speak to well about the quality they had last year. Not to mention that Thomas went on to catch more passes in New Orleans in one year than his first three years with the Patriots combined. I don’t think the main problem is the players.

So the early free agency didn’t really get them any new playmakers for the many holes they have. That leaves the draft, roster cut downs during training camp and trades. Since the draft is coming up, that’s a good place to start.

A lot of the talk has been centered around the Patriots having 4 of the first 53 picks in what is supposed to be a very deep draft. Just going by prior years, I would be shocked if they used all 4 as they have them right now.

I really have no guesses on who they will take. There are many needs (OLB, RDE, ILB, TE) plus many other positions they could use help/upgrades. I think the Patriots draft in a procedure like this:

1. Determine all the players who potentially fit
2. Assign a value to each player so they know when they are “overpaying” or have a “steal”
3. Create a short list of the players they would like to have at the end of the draft
4. Draft the best player available

I think part of the last two steps are the trading the Patriots do. If there is a player they covet and the value is there, they will trade up to get them. Conversely, if their pick is coming and they don’t have any players they want (or the best player available is “overpriced”) they will try and trade down to select a player that was assigned the same value. If someone wants to “overpay” (based on their assigned value), so be it.

I think with all the extra 7th round compensatory picks they will be able to draft players who may’ve had competition for their services if they went undrafted.

Overall, they had a lot of rookies make the team last year making up almost 20% of the roster. While they didn’t gain much from their 2007 draft, I don’t think there is much room on the roster. I am expecting the Patriots to select 8 or 9 players through a combination of trades (move up, move down, get 2011 picks and players).

Some wild guesses:

• They get another 2011 1st Rd Pick
• A starter is traded (Matt Light? James Sanders?)
• Their first pick will be a defensive player
• They will draft an offensive lineman in the second round
• They will draft only 2 of the 3 (WR, TE, RB)

Whatever happens, no one will have predicted it, that much I know.

NFL free agency is only one day in, so I won’t be jumping to any conclusions on how the 2010 Patriots will fair at this point. But I do want to talk about the Patriots some.

Looking back to the 2009 season, they had quite a few problems. Throughout the whole season, they were unable to find a third receiver in an offense that has the 3 WR offense as its base offense. They traded for Greg Lewis and they cut him. They acquired Joey Galloway and cut him. Julian Edelman emerged as a surprise, but I don’t see him as an outside receiver. Brandon Tate was there for 2 games before injury ended his already short season. Wes Welker had a horrible injury and realistically, the earliest he could be returning is Week 7. Randy Moss revealed he was dealing with multiple injuries and it is wishful thinking that was the sole reason for his below average (for him) season. Saying they need to address WR is an understatement.

At running back they went with the by committee approach they have employed since Laurence Maroney was supposed to replace Corey Dillon. With aging backs, there were a lot of games lost to injury (16 games for 4 RBs, 25%).  Statistically, they seem fine, but they failed on more critical short run plays than I’d like to  remember.

On defense, the Patriots had a hard time making the plays to close out a game. I’ve already detailed how uncharacteristic the team was in a previous post, so I’ll avoid rehashing that. They need to transform the pass rush. Bill Belichick says that it’s a combination of the secondary and pass rush, but I think this is just hos way of avoiding throwing anyone under a bus. The problem has been the linebackers for years. These guys are so important to the defensive scheme. Their heyday was when they had a rotation on the outside of Willie McGinest, Mike Vrabel and Rosevelt Colvin and Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer on the inside. They are all gone and the only complete guy they have now is Jerod Mayo on the inside. Adailus Thomas has been a disappointment. Tully Banta-Cain does not hold up well against the run. Gary Guyton is showing a lot of promise. They are in desperate need of two complete outside LBs. It’s a tall order to find guys who can stop the run (set the edge), rush the passer and drop back and cover when they don’t rush the passer.

So now they can start to build a better team. I think all of the news that came out yesterday was carefully (and smartly) orchestrated by the Patriots. They cut Chris Baker (another TE mistake, along with trading for Alex Smith and cutting him) early in the day and then re-signed 3 players. They made the big splash with Vince Wilfork (“highest paid NT in NFL history”) and kept Tully Banta-Cain with a 3yr/$13.5M after letting him walk away for a 3yr/$9M deal in 2007. They also kept Stephen Neal.

Banta-Cain and Neal were both unrestricted free agents. I find it hard to believe that neither checked the market to see who else was interested at that point when the Patriots had more than enough time to complete a deal. With former Patriots coaches and executives spread all over, surely someone would make a run at them. I believe all the deals were done before free agency started and they delayed signing them to end up with positive press. There were also rumors flying around that the Patriots had made an offer to Julius Peppers (it’s pretty obvious that Peppers didn’t think it was serious if they did) and they were chasing Anquan Boldin (it wasn’t a serious chase when they wanted him to play out his contract after all he has wanted the last two years is a new one and a big raise).

So the Patriots got exactly what they wanted. Not many people talking about their failure at tight end or the fact that they didn’t bring in any new players on day one. Instead the focus is on them re-sigining their players, particularly Vince Wilfork and rumors that they tried to get big name guys. The reality is that they haven’t made the team any different from last year. They still have a lot to do. I’m hopeful that maybe they can find some key veterans like they did in 2003 (Rodney Harrison, Tyrone Poole, Rosevelt Colvin) after the initial frenzy ends.

It has been a week of looking back on the Patriots and from what I gather, some big changes are likely coming. The big theme was a lack of leadership.

There was a culture in the locker roomthat was basically eliminated in one off-season. Rodney Harrison’s contract ended at the end of the season and he was going to take his time to decide on his future. The Patriots traded Mike Vrabel at the start of free agency for basically nothing. I don’t know if they traded him over a $1M roster bonus or because he wasn’t producing. Harrison decided to retire in June. Tedy Bruschi got through half of training camp and decided to retire. Then the Patriots traded Richard Seymour right before the season started. From what I can gather now, these guys were the “assholes” in the locker room. They were the vocal ones who would make sarcastic remarks like “leaving already?” to the rookie who was leaving before they were. They weren’t afraid to call out other team mates for anything they felt was lacking. Poor play, poor focus, poor discipline, etc.

When Harrison and Bruschi retired, they pointed to Brandon Meriweather and Jerod Mayo as leaders. The problem was, them, along with Tom Brady, Kevin Faulk, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren are all nice guys. They lead by example but they won’t call a team mate out. There were always stories about how during practice, Harrison would turn it into a real competition with Brady. His goal was to incense Brady every practice. He was vocal and clear about it. In turn, Brady wanted to beat Harrison. They made each other better every day. They pushed each other. And this was widespread through the whole team.

There was a good story Willie McGinest told to the Globe that kind of sums up what was lost:

“When we were there, we had a foundation and a nucleus of guys that were competitive,” said McGinest. “And not competitive against the other team. Competitive against each other. I remember yelling over at (Richard) Seymour during the game, Ty (Warren) and me saying, ‘They ain’t running over here!’ And he and Vrabel yelling back, ‘They ain’t running here.’ And then (Vince) Wilfork saying, ‘They sure as heck ain’t running here.'”

They pushed each other to the point that no one wanted to be the reason they lost. They all did their jobs at a high level. It makes me realize how lucky we were as Patriots fans. Bill Belichick was able to get together all these guys who made each other better. Yes, his schemes were good, but these were a group of extraordinary players. It also looks like they were all on the defensive side of the ball. In one off-season, Belichick got rid of the last of them. I think this clarifies why Junior Seau was brought back so early. Unfortunately, pre-game speeches only carry a team so far. There was no one on the sidelines (or in practice) challenging their team mates to play better. Now you have guys laughing and joking after the beating they took to end the season. A year ago, no one would’ve been smiling in that locker room.

Belichick got rid of all the vocal guys. There was no one left to police the locker room. There were no dissenting voices to challenge Belichick. I don’t mean like Adalius Thomas, but players who performed on the field week in and week out. Leaders who would stand up to the coach when needed. The only voice left was Belichick’s. It goes back further than these guys. He got rid of Lawyer Milloy (but was lucky to have Rodney Harrison to fill his leadership shoes). After he joined the Bills, his first week there in the film room players were laughing at another player for blowing a play. Milloy tells everyone that it isn’t funny. The new guy was already showing them how to do things the right way.

Brady talked about it to an extent on the radio show and after the loss. That he needed to be a better leader. That you just can’t replace all those guys they lost. This is why I think a lot of change is coming. I’m hoping Belichick realizes what was missing in the locker room and he goes out and gets free agents who bring that edge back. We were all waiting for the real Patriots to show up this year. Most of us didn’t realize the people who really made the “Patriot Way” go, are gone. Whether they can get it back remains to be seen. There is no one left there to teach it to the next guy. It seems that no one took that torch from any of them. They were content to have Vrabel, Harrison, Bruschi and Seymour do it all.

This is one of many problems the Patriots have going into the next year. They have no offensive or defensive coordinator. The Baltimore Ravens (and even some Patriots players) said it was like they were in the Patriot’s huddle throughout that game. Is there any excuse for another team being able to predict/defend the offense that well? Coaches, schemes, players, leadership, there’s a lot of work to do in Foxborough.

For any Patriots fans who would like more information about the leadership void and why things didn’t go so well this season, I recommend listening to this Patriots Football Weekly podcast.

Another season ends poorly. It was almost fitting that the Patriots had their worst game of the year when it mattered the most. They came into the season as Super Bowl favorites (according to Las Vegas odds) and didn’t come anywhere close to the expectations laid out by the media. This season has been an effort in setting new lows.

As far as I can remember, Brady was pulled from a game for the first time in his career because they were losing so badly (vs. the Saints). Brady and Belichick have now lost their first home playoff game. Everything was simply uncharacteristic Patriots this season. For me the most telling was the Patriots lost 5 games that they led at half time (4 of them were by 10 or more points). In Bill Belichick’s first 9 seasons as Patriots head coach (2000-2008) they had lost only 5 games they led at half time, total.

In retrospect, some are saying this is a “rebuilding” year. It’s hard to believe that when the offense had almost all of the players they had in 2007, or 2008 when they had Matt Cassel at QB and won more games. Was Jabar Gaffney the entire difference? Maybe the offensive line is getting older. The defense was supposed to get younger and faster along with a much improved secondary. Did trading Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour hurt them badly? Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi retiring?

I think they need a player that can be disruptive to the passing game, especially getting after the QB.  But, I believe more of the blame this year falls on the shoulders of the offense. They produced in the first half, but then were anemic in the second half in too many games. Wishful thinking is Tom Brady was still getting back into the game and both he and Randy Moss suffered from other undisclosed injuries. If that is age related, then it’s not likely to be a one time occurrence. Wes Welker will likely miss half of the 2010 season, maybe all of it. He certainly won’t be his old self in 2010.

The Patriots had a pretty good draft last year. They got a lot of young players who contributed and it filled out their roster pretty well. I’m hopeful they will focus on trying to get a few impact players (trading up) instead of collecting contributors (trading down). My list right now looks like outside line backer/pass rusher, outside wide receiver, running back, cornerback, tight end and offensive lineman. They could fill some of these in free agency as well. It will be interesting to see how it ends up going.

If it’s an uncapped year, the Patriots avoided any restrictions on signing players with the wild card round loss. They are a high revenue team, so I wonder if they will spend at the top. Traditionally they have spent near the cap limit. It’s an interesting dynamic for the owners. They want to win and could get players that normally would’ve been very difficult under a salary cap. On the other hand, if they’re spending a lot, it’s hard to convince the players that the current split is inequitable. They can also cut players with no concern for the dead money. This part could be bigger than many anticipate given Tom Brady’s comments about commitment, discipline, working hard, etc. in comparison to the past. I think some surprising cuts are coming.

It should be an interesting off-season.

Another week of the “Patriots don’t lose two games in a row” talk and they didn’t lose this one. They also looked pretty good. They played a little more balanced and Brady had a lot of time to make his throws unlike last week.

The offense looked better, but I don’t know if that’s because Brady had time to throw or if they were successful running the ball. With Wes Welker out, Randy Moss seemed to be doing everything. Later we found out he had a lot of back pain. Teammates were stretching him out during breaks and he had trouble getting his jersey on and off. Then CBS Sports put up an article saying he was dogging it the whole game. Brady looked more accurate and there was one point where some possible TDs were blown by Joey Galloway (stepped out of bounds at the back of the end zone) and Sam Aiken (cut his route short). The crowd also cheered Galloway when he made a catch. That is not a good sign for a WR when he gets the cheers for just catching the ball. I think the red zone offense is a concern at this point. They’re kicking a lot of FGs so far this season.

The defense looked even better. In the 2nd half, they allowed 78 yards, 2 1st downs in 15 total plays. Still no interceptions or real playmakers have emerged.  But it was solid team defense. Gary Guyton has done an admirable job filling in for Mayo.

Bill Belichick also made the gutsy call to go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 24. They were winning and it was only the 3rd quarter. He must’ve really felt they could get it pretty easy. Being up by only 6 points, missing that could’ve shifted momentum and led to a quick TD and them being down by 1.

Next up are the Ravens who people expect to be another good matchup for the Patriots. Their offense is a lot better, but their defense has fallen off a bit from past years.