The Haphazard Blog

With the NFL draft coming up later this week I thought now would be a good time to share my thoughts on where they are at this point and throw out some wild guesses on what happens during the draft.

The Patriots made some small signings since the second day of free agency. They brought back old friend David Patten. He is certainly a guy Tom Brady can work with, but given his age (and he was out of the NFL last year) I don’t know how much production you can expect from him. I would be surprised if he made the roster. The Patriots could’ve picked him up last year when they badly needed a receiver but didn’t. I believe he was brought in to help teach the younger players good habits. Troy Brown is long gone, Wes Welker is rehabbing his knee and I don’t see Randy Moss as a workout warrior.

The Patriots worked out a deal for Kevin Faulk. Looks like he is now going to finish up his career similarly to Troy Brown, one year at a time until he retires as a Patriot. I’m hoping Faulk can teach Laurence Maroney how to better protect the ball. Long time Patriots fans will remember that Faulk had a fumbling problem earlier in his career and now he is counted on for his sure hands.

They also signed Alge Crumpler who was not nearly as good in Tennessee as he was in Atlanta. He reminds me of Kyle Brady now. Just a big guy who would likely be best suited (and used) as a blocking tight end. Seems fine to me though. The Patriots just don’t seem to use a tight end to catch passes. It’s like their last responsibility. The best group of tight ends that Bill Belichick has had in training camp are all gone. They cut Alex Smith, traded David Thomas, let Ben Watson walk and cut Chris Baker. Doesn’t speak to well about the quality they had last year. Not to mention that Thomas went on to catch more passes in New Orleans in one year than his first three years with the Patriots combined. I don’t think the main problem is the players.

So the early free agency didn’t really get them any new playmakers for the many holes they have. That leaves the draft, roster cut downs during training camp and trades. Since the draft is coming up, that’s a good place to start.

A lot of the talk has been centered around the Patriots having 4 of the first 53 picks in what is supposed to be a very deep draft. Just going by prior years, I would be shocked if they used all 4 as they have them right now.

I really have no guesses on who they will take. There are many needs (OLB, RDE, ILB, TE) plus many other positions they could use help/upgrades. I think the Patriots draft in a procedure like this:

1. Determine all the players who potentially fit
2. Assign a value to each player so they know when they are “overpaying” or have a “steal”
3. Create a short list of the players they would like to have at the end of the draft
4. Draft the best player available

I think part of the last two steps are the trading the Patriots do. If there is a player they covet and the value is there, they will trade up to get them. Conversely, if their pick is coming and they don’t have any players they want (or the best player available is “overpriced”) they will try and trade down to select a player that was assigned the same value. If someone wants to “overpay” (based on their assigned value), so be it.

I think with all the extra 7th round compensatory picks they will be able to draft players who may’ve had competition for their services if they went undrafted.

Overall, they had a lot of rookies make the team last year making up almost 20% of the roster. While they didn’t gain much from their 2007 draft, I don’t think there is much room on the roster. I am expecting the Patriots to select 8 or 9 players through a combination of trades (move up, move down, get 2011 picks and players).

Some wild guesses:

• They get another 2011 1st Rd Pick
• A starter is traded (Matt Light? James Sanders?)
• Their first pick will be a defensive player
• They will draft an offensive lineman in the second round
• They will draft only 2 of the 3 (WR, TE, RB)

Whatever happens, no one will have predicted it, that much I know.

Roger Goodell recently said the following according to ProFootballTalk:

Honestly, we don’t have a solution for it. We’ve had a lot of suggestions. A lot of people have talked about things from making scheduling changes to re-seeding the playoffs. A couple people have suggested the idea of potentially modifying the draft in certain ways. But none of these have been studied in depth.

This is in response to the reaction to the Indianapolis Colts to rest their players at a time when their team was 14-0 and had a real shot at going 16-0. The fans at the game were very upset. The Colts have a long history of resting their players late in the season once they have clinched home field advantage for the playoffs. The outcry was much larger this season because they were undefeated and then compounded by their actions afterward. Ranging from bogus excuses for why they played hard the week before (debunked by ProFootballTalk) to then risking injury to their players to establish arbitrary individual statistical milestones.

The NFL tossed out some ideas that Goodell mentioned. Giving out draft picks to teams that continue to play hard was the first one I heard. This one didn’t make much sense to me since they’d be rewarding teams that are heading to the playoffs. If the idea is parity, and they give the teams that did poorly better draft positions, it would be counteractive to reward good teams with additional draft picks, regardless of where they are in the order.

Another idea, adjusting the schedule so the last 3 games are division games won’t help much either. The weight the division has is already diminished when only 6 out of 16 games are division games. Using this year as an example, the Colts were uncatchable with 3 games left. It didn’t matter what those 3 games were.

I think the solution lies in re-seeding. The basis of teams resting is that they have established either the top seed in the playoffs or that whatever they do, their seed in the playoffs is set. They have to make a change that strikes at the reason for resting.

My suggestion is to continue to determine the playoff teams as they are now (division winners plus two wild card teams). Then add an emphasis to a team’s late season performance. I’m throwing out doubling the weight of the last 4 games of the season. In this scenario, this is what would’ve happened this season:

2009 NFL Playoffs Reseeded

The Colts and San Diego Chargers end up flipping seeds and the Cincinnati Bengals drop from the fourth to sixth seed in AFC. For the NFC, the top 3 seeds remain the same and the Arizona Cardinals drop from the fourth to sixth seed. At first glance, it doesn’t seem to solve many problems. Looking at the NFC, 5 teams ended up with the same weighted record. The New Orleans Saints rested their starters in the final weekend and lost. The Philadelphia Eagles would’ve had a shot at the #1 seed with a win. The Colts would’ve locked up the #1 seed with one more win and possibly been sitting at 15-0. Do they go for 16-0 then or lay down? I’d like to know how many teams would throw away a chance at going undefeated. As far as I know, this is the first time in NFL history that a team willingly lost the first game of their season.

So by weighting the last 4 games of the season, it rewards teams for playing well into the playoffs. The reseeding also eliminates a bad team in a bad division from getting a home playoff game. Their reward is a ticket to the playoffs. Performance on field gets you home field. I ran the “numbers” for the 2005 through 2008 seasons as well and you can see the end result in the gallery at the end of the post. Some quick (mostly New England Patriots-centric) observations (these all exclude the effect of how teams would’ve played had they known records would be weighted, so it assumes each team tried their best to win the game):

• In 2008, the Colts would’ve jumped from a wild card to the first seed. They started out slow but finished up on a long streak. Nice reward.
• In 2007, the Patriots still lock-up the #1 seed early, but the NFC field is shaken up. Do the New York Giants still make it to the Super Bowl? What would’ve been…
• In 2006, the AFC Championship game could’ve been the Colts at the Patriots instead of the other way around.
• In 2005, the seeding in the AFC is changed so the wild card teams host the division winners, but the games stay the same. If the results also stay the same, then the Patriots avoids the Denver Broncos (the team/coach (Shanahan) have had Bill Belichick’s number) and play the Colts instead. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Broncos that year and if the Patriots beat the Colts, they play at the Steelers in the AFC championship. I like their chances. And yes Steelers fans, this is why the Patriots are the team of the decade. Three Super Bowls to 2 and the Patriots were 2-0 against the Steelers in the playoffs. Both games were the AFC Championship in Pittsburgh. The Steelers never had to beat the Patriots to win a Championship.

I really enjoy the NFL Matchup show on ESPN, but I’m sure the ratings bear this out; I think I’m in the minority. The show dives into the X’s and O’s of football. The show currently has a home at 6:30 AM CT on ESPN Sunday mornings. Fortunately we are at a point where many have DVRs so it isn’t that bad. I’ve just observed the time slot/day for the show has progressively worsened over time. I hope the next step isn’t cancelation.

What makes the show most interesting to me is they are able to use the coach’s tape (which is basically inaccessible to the public) to show a more in depth breakdown of football plays.  I wish they devoted 30 minutes to every game. There is so much that goes on in football that simply is not explained to the viewer. For people who really love the game, they present it in a new way that helps you understand what is going on in a given play.

NFL Network has a show they air three times a week for 1 hour called Playbook. They go over the previous week in one show and they cover the AFC and NFC in their own shows for the upcoming week. This show definitely contributes to the fan’s understanding of the game.

This week I’ve read and heard from writers and commentators some variation on “real men don’t wear pink” in reaction to NFL players who will be wearing pink in support of breast cancer awareness this month. To be fair, they also commended the NFL and players for doing it. I’ve never been accused of going out too much, but do any of these people get out, watch TV or look at magazines? I see men wearing dress shirts and ties that either contain pink or are all pink. Even on air people at ESPN will have some pink in their shirts or ties at times. I know I’ve seen Tom Brady wearing stuff with pink in it during post game press conferences. Now it’s some big deal for players to wear pink cleats or gloves. I think we’re quite a bit beyond “real men don’t wear pink”.

Another week of the “Patriots don’t lose two games in a row” talk and they didn’t lose this one. They also looked pretty good. They played a little more balanced and Brady had a lot of time to make his throws unlike last week.

The offense looked better, but I don’t know if that’s because Brady had time to throw or if they were successful running the ball. With Wes Welker out, Randy Moss seemed to be doing everything. Later we found out he had a lot of back pain. Teammates were stretching him out during breaks and he had trouble getting his jersey on and off. Then CBS Sports put up an article saying he was dogging it the whole game. Brady looked more accurate and there was one point where some possible TDs were blown by Joey Galloway (stepped out of bounds at the back of the end zone) and Sam Aiken (cut his route short). The crowd also cheered Galloway when he made a catch. That is not a good sign for a WR when he gets the cheers for just catching the ball. I think the red zone offense is a concern at this point. They’re kicking a lot of FGs so far this season.

The defense looked even better. In the 2nd half, they allowed 78 yards, 2 1st downs in 15 total plays. Still no interceptions or real playmakers have emerged.  But it was solid team defense. Gary Guyton has done an admirable job filling in for Mayo.

Bill Belichick also made the gutsy call to go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 24. They were winning and it was only the 3rd quarter. He must’ve really felt they could get it pretty easy. Being up by only 6 points, missing that could’ve shifted momentum and led to a quick TD and them being down by 1.

Next up are the Ravens who people expect to be another good matchup for the Patriots. Their offense is a lot better, but their defense has fallen off a bit from past years.

I’m disappointed with that loss. It looked like Super Bowl XLII out there. The Jets walked the walk.

There was a lot said about Bill Belichick versus rookie QBs. I wasn’t really buying it. Usually rookie QBs are playing on a bad team. Belichick’s only loss to a rookie QB was against Ben Roethlisberger. Aside from the fact that he has proven to be a play maker, he was playing for a good team. (I can not call him a good QB when the passing playbook consists of 1 play per formation: Run the drawn route, then scramble.) I think Belichick strives when he has more film, not less. Same thing with Mark Sanchez. There is very little film on the guy. Let’s see how he looks in the second half of the season.

Tom Brady was a pinball back there. He wasn’t sacked so much, but he was hit and it seemed like he had little time to throw the ball. Despite that, the game was close. The difference was basically the way the Jets came out to start the second half. They got that quick TD (missed tackle on the long play) and it was enough of a gap. The Patriots could not get it done when they had the chance. Settling for FGs instead of TDs. It probably hurt not to have Wes Welker out there. His replacement for the game, Julian Edelman, had 8 catches, but I heard this morning that he was targeted 16 times. I’m sure they weren’t all drops, but I saw some for sure. Joey Galloway is supposed to be a really good WR, but it seems like his hands are worse than Ben Watson’s have been over the years. Isn’t Galloway a former Seahawk? That could explain it.

The defense did a good job for the most part. They were stopping the run and did well on third down. It certainly is better than was predicted. I would have to put the blame on the offense. They looked like the guys who played the first 54 minutes of the Bills game last week. They won’t be as prolific as 2007, but right now there is a chasm between how they look now and 2007. Surely they can only get (a lot) better going forward. And if the defense is better than expected, this could be a better all around team than 2007.

That was a great come back. It reminded me of the Super Bowl winning Patriots — making the plays they needed to win. They were lucky to win that game.

Tom Brady didn’t look comfortable until he was in the hurry-up offense. Was it his knee? Was the hurry up going so fast that he didn’t have time to think about his knee? He was uncharacteristically inaccurate. Some passes high, some passes low. There were also some drops in there. I think back to last year. Before Brady went down, both Randy Moss and Wes Welker fumbled the ball. But, Brady was accurate. I joked to my brother who was 84? Ben Watson came up big. He has been known more for dropping passes and not living up to the hype. Is this the (contract) year?

The defense was getting destroyed on screen passes and short passes. They did a good job against the run. The red zone defense was not good. I assumed this would be an area they’d really improve in this season. They were really bad at it last year and Bill Belichick usually fixes major deficiencies year-to-year. Jerod Mayo went down and I’m not sure how bad it is. He did run a bit after getting hurt. I’d think that means it isn’t season ending. My feeling going into the season was he was going to be our Ray Lewis — a real play maker. Didn’t have much of those. I can only think of the pair of sacks at the end of the game. Looks like they’ll be able to get to the passer on obvious passing situations. They really need some play makers on defense.

The big play was obviously the forced fumble on the kick off. I don’t think the defense forces a 3 and out if Buffalo doesn’t fumble.Heads up play by Brandon Meriweather to make the hit and hold Leodis McKelvin up for Pierre Woods to knock the ball lose. Stephen Gostkowski was also Johnny on the spot to get the ball.

Next week it’s the Jets. They’ve been doing a lot of talking (and I’m sure there will be more). I’d say no one does that and gets away with it, but Joey Porter was able to do it last year. I think if Brady has better accuracy the Pats will be fine.